Monday, April 29, 2013

Hirschman Biography

I have just finished reading Jeremy Adelman's wonderful biography of the great social scientist Albert Hirschman: Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman (Princeton 2013). It is among the most impressive biographies I have ever read, in large part because Hirschman led such an interesting and active life (especially for someone primarily known as a scholar), but also because of the close attention Adelman pays to Hirschman's ideas and the long arc of his thinking, which moved so closely in relation to his active  life.

I now have a much better understanding of why I always have found Hirschman's approach to social science so admirable. To understand the man's life is to better appreciate his thinking. All of the social scientists I have admired most, including (in addition to Hirschman) Tom Schelling (who plays a fairly prominent role throughout Adelman's biography), Lin Ostrom, Amartya Sen, and Herbert Simon, share in common very high levels of creativity with a relative disdain for conventional, discipline-bound thinking. They do not give rise to schools of thought, but embody them in a way that makes it extraordinarily difficult for more ordinary scholars to follow in their giant footsteps.

From One Conference to the Next

Having returned yesterday from the annual meeting of the Association for Law, Property, and Society, today is the semestral "mini-conference" at the Ostrom Workshop. It is one of the two longest-standing pillars of the Workshop, along with the Monday colloquia, having taken place each semester for the past 40 years. And it's a pretty cool event. Each semester, participants in the Workshop seminar, both grad students and visiting scholars, prepare papers for the mini-conference. Instead of presenting papers themselves however, their papers are presented and briefly critiqued by senior scholars, serving in a mentorship role to the conferees, before discussion ensues among the entire group. In some semesters, the mini-conference stretches out over two days; this semester, it's just one day.

I'll be presenting two papers this afternoon: one by Li Guoqing on the emergence of private homeowners' associations in China; another by Josephine van Zeben on the allocation of regulatory  competences in the EU. Needless to say, I never fail to learn a lot from prepping papers for presentation at the mini-conference.

Friday, April 26, 2013


The Independent has a great story (here) on Badfinger, the first band I ever saw live (1971, Auditorium Theater, Chicago) and still one of my all time favorites.

Thursday, April 25, 2013


I'm in Minneapolis for the 4th Annual Meeting of the Association for Law, Property, and Society (ALPS). The program is chock full of interesting papers and panels (see here). I'm on a plenary roundtable on Saturday to talk about Lin Ostrom's influence and lessons for property scholars. I'm always honored to represent and talk about Lin and the Workshop she created with her husband Vincent. One of the questions our panel will be addressing is how Lin's work is influencing our own current projects. Fortunately, I'm involved in a number of Workshop-related projects that are extending Lin's projects and methods of analysis. It should be fun.

UPDATE: The opening plenary panel is on various approaches to property law research, including property theory, doctrinal, socio-legal, empirical, historical/cultural, "applied" (whatever that means), and geographical. Notice anything missing from that list? Did the organizers simply believe that economics has nothing to do or say about the structure of property law? This cannot be a case of simple neglect, can it? Definitely makes me feel like an outsider (although I know others here who use economic analysis, at least from time to time, in their property research).

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Process v. Justice in FA Disciplinary Rulings

Liverpool's Luis Suarez has been hit with a 10-game suspension by the FA for biting, yes biting, an opposing player (the second time in his career he has done it) (see here). Even a strong statement of support for Suarez from the world's other famous athlete-biter Mike Tyson (here) could not ameliorate his sentence.

Compare the recent case of Manchester City's Sergio "Kun" Aguero, who was not penalized at all for a blatantly intentional two-foot stomp on the backside of Chelsea defender David Luiz (see here). According to the FA, it had no jurisdiction to review the episode because the referee claimed that he saw what happened. (see here). And the referee's decision not to penalize Aguero is final. Clearly, the referee did not see it well enough.

Is a bite worse than a kick in the ass? Well, the biter is out for 10 games, while the stomper gets no penalty, and all because of a single, dubious procedural distinction: in one case, the referee did not see the incident and, in the other, the referee claimed to have seen the incident (but failed to adequately assess it). Such a difference in outcomes based on the slender reed of what the referee did or did not see and assess makes an ass of the FA, and leads to unjustly inconsistent outcomes across similar cases.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Great Weekend of Cycling (but Not for Me)

A group of my cycling buddies from Indy came down for a ride and to watch the Little 500 men's race yesterday. Pity I couldn't ride with them since I came down with a nasty cold the day before. On Friday I did get over to Armstrong Stadium to watch the finale of the women's Little 5 race and to root on Emma Caughlin and her Teter teammates.

Yesterday, unfortunately, I had to watch the men's race on TV. The Betas won in a very exciting finish. Special congratulations on a very strong ride to Matt Green. Matt's dad Ken is a good friend and cycling buddy, and I've watched Matt mature into a super-strong cyclist over the last 5 years or so. It was great to see him and his teammates celebrating a well-earned victory.

Finally congrats to Dan Martin (Garmin-Sharp) for winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege. His team played a great strategy with Ryder Hesjedal attacking from several kilometers out. When he was pegged back, Dan Martin stuck on the back of the lead group, and finished the job Hesjedal started. Martin becomes only the second Irishman ever (after Sean Kelly) to win the oldest of pro cycling's spring classics.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

So Long Quora

I've just deactivated my Quora account after their ham-fisted moderators determined that one of my responses to an inane question ("Can hypnosis cure homosexuality?") was a "joke" answer and, therefore, unhelpful to the person who raised the question. I grant that my answer was humorous - and I give them full credit for recognizing a joke when they saw one - but it was neither disrespectful nor anti-social. In my view, the question did not warrant a serious answer. In the view of Quora's moderators, my answer did not deserve to be published. So, I will stick to publishing my views exclusively on this blog, where I needn't worry about either inane questions (other than those I raise myself) or whether some censor finds my views insufficiently serious to publish.

The Politics of Cowardice

The Senate couldn't even do the very least it could do on gun control mainly because of fear of losing office. In the inimitable words of Rubeus Hagrid, "Cowardly bunch of nags."

Monday, April 15, 2013

The Rule of Law In Action

A Michigan judge has issued a contempt citation and fined himself after his smartphone disrupted a court hearing. The story is here. Judge Raymond Voet should serve as a role model for all judges everywhere. The sad part is that it is such a rare circumstance that it has made international headlines (see here and here). Or, is it simply the case that judges just mess up far less often than ordinary humans?

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Time Standing Still

For the first time since the start of the season, I have a Cubs game on the television. It's like napping with my eyes open.

A Tale of Two Sunday Rides

Roman Kreuzinger (Saxo-Tinkoff) won Amstel Gold. I, meanwhile, struggled through a 20-mile solo ride around the hills north of Bloomington. It's almost as if I haven't been on a bike in years. The only way to fix it is to ride more.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Can EPA Cut Carbon Emissions As Much As the President Wants to Cut Its Budget?

Over at The New Yorker's website (here), Ryan, Lizza notes the discontinuity between President Obama's professed desired to make a significant impact on the climate change problem and the budget he just sent Congress, which offers to cut the EPA's budget by 3.5% (compared to the current year). No doubt, Congress will take him up on that offer, or even double-down on it (and, given historical precedent, we might expect the President to cave).

So much for the soaring rhetoric about the importance of tackling climate change in the President's State of the Union address.

Friday, April 12, 2013

Always Plenty to Do in Bloomington

I'm planning to start posting more about the various conferences and talks I get to around the IU campus on a weekly basis (but mostly in the Ostrom Workshop). I can never get to all the interesting events around campus each week. This week, I've managed to hear at least one interesting presentation almost each day:

Monday - Scott Barrett's (Columbia) Workshop colloquium (co-sponsored by the Econ. Dept.) on game theoretic treatments of different types of climate "catastrophes"

Wednesday - Visiting Scholar, Prof. Li Quoqing's Workshop colloquium on Homeowners' Associations in China (apparently the first true domestic NGOs allowed by the Chinese government).

Thursday - Kathryn Hendley's (Wisc.) Law & Society colloquium presentation on "Is Justice Possible in Russia's Courts? An Analysis from the Bottom Up"

Friday morning: Saad Eddin Ibrahim's presentation, with discussion by Nazif Shahrani and others, at a  Conference on Reform and Revolution in the Arab World.

Friday noon: Visiting Scholar Claudia Konrad's (Trier) Workshop colloquium on "Land Tenure, Institutional Diversity and Forest Resource Sustainability in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve, Ecuador. An Analysis of the Socio Bosque Program"

I hope to be able to return Saturday to the Conference on Reform and Revolution in the Arab World for at least one or two more panels. But that depends on how class preps are progressing for next (the last) week's classes.

As I said, it's literally impossible to get to all the interesting talks, workshops, and conferences around campus; and that's excluding all of the marvelous concerts sponsored by the Jacobs School of Music. I'm still kicking myself for missing a chamber music concert last week featuring Hindemith and Schubert.

EPA Nominee Pledges "Common Sense" Approach to Climate Change

The Washington Post has the story of Gina McCarthy's confirmation hearings here. The story doesn't elaborate on what she meant by a "common sense" approach to climate change. Does it mean she would strive to actually reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a significant amount, e.g., in accordance with pledges President Obama made at Copenhagen - a goal which has so far eluded the federal government (except by accident of national economic recession)? Does it mean she would seek compromise, a la her boss, by staking an initial position in the middle, then giving in substantially to the objections of Republicans and regulated industries?

In addition to not being very informative, "common sense" is a dubious virtue (perhaps only a virtue of small minds) that sometimes misleads and deceives. To take just one example, common sense tells us that the sun circles the earth, rising in the East and setting in the West.

More hopefully, we should bear in mind that Ms. McCarthy's used the ambiguous phrase "common sense" during a Senate confirmation hearing, where a disarming and reassuring ambiguity based on comforting slogans is de rigueur for a nominee's success. Once approved - and Senate confirmation seems highly likely - perhaps she will reconsider whether EPA's approach to climate policy should be based on "common sense" or a scientifically-supported but still uncommon sense of what is required for the US to participate effectively in global efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentration levels of carbon dioxide equivalents at non-dangerous levels (which is an obligation to which the US still is legally committed as a ratifying party of the United Nation's 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change).

At the very least (and it is really about the very least that should be done), the new EPA Administrator should endeavor to raise fossil fuel prices throughout the economy in accordance with the federal government's 2010 (quite conservative) estimates of the social cost of carbon (see here).

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Some of the Best Put-Downs in History

 Quote of Abhishek Rathi's answer to Insults: What are some great one-line insults? on Quora:

The exchange between Churchill & Lady Astor:
She said, "If you were my husband I'd give you poison."
He said, "If you were my wife, I'd drink it."
A member of Parliament to Disraeli: "Sir, you will either die on the gallows or of some unspeakable disease."
"That depends, Sir," said Disraeli, "whether I embrace your policies or your mistress."
"He had delusions of adequacy." - Walter Kerr
"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire." -Winston Churchill
"I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." Clarence Darrow
"He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary." - William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway).
"Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I'll waste no time reading it." - Moses Hadas
"I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark Twain
"He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends." - Oscar Wilde
"I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend... if you have one." - George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill
"Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one." - Winston Churchill, in response.
"I feel so miserable without you; it's almost like having you here." - Stephen Bishop
"He is a self-made man and worships his creator." - John Bright
"I've just learned about his illness. Let's hope it's nothing trivial." - Irvin S. Cobb
"He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in others." - Samuel Johnson
"He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up." - Paul Keating
"In order to avoid being called a flirt, she always yielded easily." - Charles, Count Talleyrand
"He loves nature in spite of what it did to him." - Forrest Tucker
"Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it?" - Mark Twain
"His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork." - Mae West
"Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go." - Oscar Wilde
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
"He has Van Gogh's ear for music." - Billy Wilder
"I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But this wasn't it." - Groucho Marx.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Heal and Milner on Climate Uncertainties

Geoffrey Heal (Columbia) and Antony Millner (LSE) have produced a terrific working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (here), which does several important things: (1) it disaggregates the various kinds of climate-related uncertainty that impede rational policy-making and implementation; (2) it explains why a great deal of climate-related uncertainty is unlikely to be substantially reduced (or reduced enough) over the next two decades to make rational policy-making easier; and (3) they begin a long-overdue investigation of non-probabilistically-based alternatives to expected valuation-based decision-making for climate policy, including Savage's theory of Subjective Expected Utility, various maximin-based criteria, the Smooth Ambiguity Model, and Variational Preferences. Finally, they emphasize that deep uncertainty about various aspects of the climate problem (more accurately, complex of problems) are not an excuse for doing nothing because "[w]e know more than enough about climate change to know that it is a serious problem that requires immediate policy attention: uncertainty does not imply ignorance."

Here is the abstract:
Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes, or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical expected utility framework of limited value. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change and resolve these into various components, commenting on their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that are appropriate in the absence of quantitative probabilistic information, including non-probabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and discuss their application in climate change economics.
Heal and Millner are not the only social scientists working to improve our understanding of the uncertainties climate policy-makers confront. In his talk yesterday at the Ostrom Workshop, Scott Barrett focused on an self-evidently important distinction between "threshold uncertainty" (where tipping points may occur) and "impact uncertainty" (the consequences from passing tipping points).

Too Many Lawyers?

Or just a maldistribution? This article in today's New York Times discusses the lawyer shortage in South Dakota, and measures the state is taking to alleviate the shortage, including enacting a state law that subsidizes lawyers who will live in and serve rural communities.
The new law, which will go into effect in June, requires a five-year commitment from the applicant and sets up a pilot program of up to 16 participants. They will receive an annual subsidy of $12,000, 90 percent of the cost of a year at the University of South Dakota Law School.
It is similar to a federal program to subsidize rural doctors and nurses, and serves as a reminder that legal services are an important social good.

The Purpose of a University

In an age when many critics of higher education focus myopically on job-preparation, tuition, and student debt, Nicholas Thompson questions whether one of my alma maters, Stanford, has changed from a university to an incubator for Silicon Valley start-ups by brilliant drop-outs supported by faculty and administrators (with apparent conflicts of interest). The piece is here in The New Yorker.

Thompson raises legitimate questions:
what’s the point of having a great university among the palm trees if students feel like they have to treat their professors as potential investors, found companies before they can legally drink, and drop out in an effort to get rich fast? Shouldn't it be a place to drift, to think, to read, to meet new people, and to work at whatever inspires you?
But I fear he's engaged in a fallacy of composition. While such start-ups may emerge more often at Stanford than at most other universities (which itself is an issue worth exploring), how often does it actually happen at Stanford? How many students drop out to become internet entrepreneurs? How often are they backed by faculty and administrators?

I haven't been back to "The Farm" for several years, but I suspect there remain a lot of students - probably the vast majority of students - who are engaged in precisely the kind of activities Thompson believes universities should cultivate.

Monday, April 8, 2013

Scott Barrett at Workshop

Today, the Workshop was happy to host Scott Barrett (Earth Institute and SIPA, Columbia Univ.), who presented very  interesting experimental work, exploring conditions under which parties might be expected to cooperate or defect under conditions of either gradual or abrupt climate change. He and his co-author's rather simple, and in some respects admittedly unrealistic model, provided surprisingly robust and consistent (with theory) results.

Scott was also kind enough to take over my Climate Law & Policy class for the day. Like me, he tends to be short-run pessimistic and longer-run slightly less pessimistic. I hadn't seen him for at least a couple of years, and it was good to catch up.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Finally, Some Great Cycling Weather - Hope Some Good Cyclists are Taking Advantage

I just wish I was in better shape to take advantage of it. Dr. Jim and I did the Orchard Ride and by the penultimate big climb of the day, I was toast. Only 28 miles, an average speed of 15.5 mph, normalized power under 200, and an average heart rate of 161! That's just terrible. Goes to show what happens when winter training plans fall through because of illness and or injury. So, I guess my winter training starts now, in April.

Cancellara Does the Double

After winning the Tour of Flanders last weekend, and crashing twice in midweek, Fabian Cancellara won his third Paris-Roubaix in most unusual fashion: a track sprint against Sep Vanmarcke, who managed to stick with Cancellara through the final 20+ k of the race. Zdenek Stybar was also with them until the third to last set of cobbles, when he was struck in the face by a spectator's camera. He did very well to avoid falling, but he lost the pace and his chances for the win.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Remembering Karl Raynor

Today would have been his 55th birthday. I hope all Team Treachery & Deceit riders will think of him today as they throw their legs over their bikes, and maybe toast his memory with a post-ride beer.

Friday, April 5, 2013

So Long Google Reader

I remain very disappointed about Google's despicable decision to discontinue Google Reader, a tool I utilized more than Google Search. But today I completed the transition to "The Old Reader," which mimics the way Google Reader looked and operated when it was first launched. Although the transition took a while (importing subscriptions was a very slow process), I would rather have a slow transition to a similar service than a fast transition to a less familiar-looking service.

Thursday, April 4, 2013


I've had a pretty good time playing around at Quora lately. It's a website where people ask and answer all kinds of questions framed in various "categories." Once you figure out how to separate the interesting questions from the usual "rankings" kinds of questions, it's pretty fun to see just how thoughtful the participants are both in framing questions and in providing answers. And there are lots of participants from all over the world.

Be careful, though. I imagine it's pretty easy to become addicted to the site.

How Literally Did Cass Sunstein Take His Title as Regulatory "Czar"?

That's according to Lisa Heinzerling's (Georgetown Law) damning review (here) of Sunstein's new book, Simpler: The Future of Government (Simon & Shuster 2013). Heinzerling, who was Senior Climate Policy Counsel to the EPA Administrator and then Associate Administrator of EPA's Office of Policy during President Obama's first term, alleges that her Administration "colleague" Sunstein arrogated authority during his term as head of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) in the White House Office of Management and Budget (beyond those granted to his office by statutes and executive orders), determining which agency rules saw the light of day. She claims that he intruded on prerogatives dedicated by Congress to front-line agencies, not to OIRA.

I'm not sure that's true, especially given the subtle changes made in Executive Order 13,563 (Jan. 18, 2011) (see here), which basically (for better or worse) transformed cost-benefit analysis (CBA) from an analytical tool to a regulatory decision rule. Such a change would not have been supported by many prominent economists, who advocate for CBA as a useful analytical tool, but not as a decision rule (see here). But that's neither here not there. The fact is that the President, by his Executive Order, has turned it into a decision rule, and OIRA administrator Sunstein wielded it as such.

More importantly, Heinzerling gets exactly right the biggest problem with the ever-increasing authority of OIRA:
The deep and sad irony is that few government processes are as opaque as the process of OIRA review, superintended for almost four years by Sunstein himself. Few people even know OIRA exists; in fact, the adjective that most often appears in descriptions of this small office is “obscure.” Even fewer people know that OIRA has effective veto power over major rules issued by executive-branch agencies and that the decision as to whether a rule is “major” — and thus must run OIRA’s gauntlet before being issued — rests solely in OIRA’s hands. Most people, I would venture to guess, think that the person who runs, say, the Environmental Protection Agency is actually the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. But given OIRA’s power to veto rules, the reality is otherwise: In the rulemaking domain, the head of OIRA is effectively the head of the EPA.
In addition, Heinzerling is correct to question Sunstein's role, as head of OIRA, in the 2011 White House decision to force EPA to  abandon reconsideration of the Bush Administration's air quality standard for ozone, something it had promised to do in settlement of judicial proceedings against the Bush rule. Under the Clean Air Act, air quality standards are supposed to be set without regard to cost, but only with regard to public health. In my recent piece on "Law, Politics, and Cost-Benefit Analysis," published (here) in the Alabama Law Review, I present circumstantial evidence that the Obama Administration's decision was (unlawfully) based on political as well as economic cost considerations. Administrator Sunstein played a prominent role in the ozone decision, which he defends in his book, arguing that it was the right decision on the merits. But was it right on the scientific merits, which are the only merits that are supposed to matter under the law? That question, apparently, he does not answer.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Rodrik on the Role of Ideas and Imagination in Political-Economic Theories

Harvard economist Dani Rodrik gave a really interesting talk today at the Ostrom Workshop on the need to bring ideas back into rational choice-based theories of political-economy, which for a long time has been almost completely dominated by interest-based theories, such as public choice. Without denying the important role interests play, Rodrik offered a refreshing analysis of the important roles ideas and imagination serve in reducing political constraints to economic growth.

Unfortunately, Rodrik's presentation was not accompanied by a working paper. No doubt a paper will emerge eventually. When it does, I'll link to it.

Cubs Win, Cubs Win

Seems like it should be an April Fool's Day joke, but it's not. It's opening day of the baseball season, and the Cubs finish it atop the NL Central, after beating Pittsburgh 3-1. This may be the only time I can announce the Cubs are in first all season, so I wanted to take advantage of the rare occasion.

"US Energy Policy and the Pursuit of Failure"

That's the title of the new book by my dear friend and frequent collaborator Peter Z. Grossman, Professor of Economics at Butler University. Yesterday, Peter hand-delivered my own copy of the book, which is published by Cambridge.

I'm far too biased to provide an objective review of the book, which I've read in draft. But it is a very important book, which canvasses the history of US energy policy and offers a novel political-economic theory, which Peter calls the "do-something syndrome" to explain why Congress and the White House often respond to perceived energy "crises" with ineffective, sometimes downright silly, legislative and regulatory proposals.

But don't just take my word for it. Consider the advanced praise for the book by some very prominent social scientists:

U.S. Energy Policy and the Pursuit of Failure is exactly the kind of analysis that more economists should do. It brings in political transaction costs to explain how policies can go astray, endure, and reduce welfare. Given the plethora of policy recommendations for climate change mitigation, economists should take pause and be careful in what they call for.”
– Gary Libecap, Distinguished Professor, Corporate Environmental Management, University of California, Santa Barbara
“I’ve been engaged with U.S. energy policy since 1973, and with climate-change policy since 1979, and this new book corresponds to my experience wherever I have strong memories, and adds greatly to my historical knowledge. My only disappointment was its brief discussion of policy toward global warming, but then I realized that there has not been significant U.S. policy toward global warming! It is well organized, comprehensive, and well written – I recommend it.”
– Thomas C. Schelling, Nobel Laureate, Harvard and University of Maryland, Emeritus
“For four decades, politicians have promised a solution to the ‘energy crisis’ that will bring Americans ‘energy independence.’ Fusion, wind, solar, switch grass, or algae, the salvation technologies have changed but the promises remain the same and broken. In this important and entertaining book, Peter Grossman documents the history of energy policy failure. Most importantly, Professor Grossman explains why policy has failed. Crisis-mentality thinking has promoted quick fixes and single-shot ‘solutions’ that ignore market and technology realities. What we need is not a solution in the style of the Manhattan Project but stable rules that support basic research while leaving plenty of scope for American entrepreneurship and innovation. Professor Grossman’s careful history and insightful analysis is the key guide to a more modest but more successful energy policy.”
– Alex Tabarrok, Director, Center for Study of Public Choice and Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center, George Mason University
“Peter Grossman’s definitive documentation of the failures of energy policy is a must-read for every policy analyst.”
– Murray Weidenbaum, Edward Mallinckrodt Distinguished University Professor, Washington University, St. Louis, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, 1981–1982