Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Who Won the Final Debate?

The consensus seems to be that President Obama won the third and final debate "on points" (see, e.g., here and here). Traders in the prediction market suggest otherwise. Just before the final debate, Intrade had Obama with an approximately 61% chance of reelection. Right now, he is trading at 57.2% (see here), the lowest level since I began following the Intrade market about six weeks ago. I can't say for sure that Obama's decline is a result of the debate (or the debate alone), as opposed to recent poll numbers showing  Romney gaining strength in swing states. Nevertheless, the Obama camp should be worried, and the Romney camp should be heartened.

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