Saturday, October 13, 2012

Obama Drops Below 60% Probability of Reelection on Intrade

For the first time since I started checking Intrade (here) on a semi-daily basis, President Obama has drop below a 60% probability of reelection according to bettors on the prediction market. He currently stands at 59.3%. It's not clear whether this trend merely reflects the national polls, which have shown Romney gaining ground since the first presidential debate. According to RealClearPolitics (here) today, Romney is actually leads Obama by about 1.3%  in the average of national polls, but continue to trails in most of the important battleground states (though he has pulled ahead in Florida).

Obama is still looking good for reelection, but Romney has definitely made a big push. Can he keep the big mo through the last two debates without (a) making a serious gaffe and (b) without having to explain how his current positions relate to those he took in the primary campaign? Or can the president regain the big mo by treating the next two debates as more the equivalent of press conferences he would rather not attend? Can he make the affirmative case for another four years in the White House? Can he defend his record, while raising questions about Romney's apparent inability to stick to one consistent position on any given issue?

UPDATE: By the end of the day, today, Obama had regained ground, climbing back to just over 60%.

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