Thursday, October 25, 2012

Have I Been Following the Wrong Prediction Market?

Professional poker player and Harvard teaching fellow Brandon Ames suggests that I should be following UK sites such as Betfair and Pinnacle rather the US site Intrade because the later is a thinner market with less sophisticated participants:
Mr. Adams says that Betfair and the sports book Pinnacle, both of which put Mr. Obama’s odds at about 63 percent as of early Wednesday morning, feature more sophisticated market participants.
The full story (here) suggests that some of Mitt Romney's recent momentum in trading on Intrade has amounted to a deliberate effort by a small number of his supporters to shift the market. Because Intrade is  often cited in the US media, a surge in Romney's stock value on that market could (the presumption goes) affect the perceptions of undecided voters.

No comments:

Post a Comment

I actively moderate comments for spam, advertisements, and abusive or offensive language.