Thursday, September 27, 2012

Obama's Surge Continues

Not only is he leading in the all-important swing states (e.g., Ohio, Virginia, Florida) (see here), but his stock on Intrade has continued to rise ever since the Democratic convention. The last time I reported on it (here), nine days ago, Obama had a 67.5% chance of reelection. Today, he's up to 75.6% on the Intrade market (here). I'm a bit surprised by this, not because Romney's been an effective campaigner (obviously), but simply because I would expect Intrade traders to react against such a wide trading disparity, which suggests a far bigger lead than the public opinion polls indicate. It'll be interesting to see whether the pro-Obama trend on Intrade is either slowed or reversed after the coming debates.

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