One of the most important points that the stimulation illustrated was the danger for Israel that any strike against Iran could well force Jerusalem to mount major counter-terror operations against Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.It goes without saying that such simulations cannot replicate the strategic decisions made in the heat of actual conflict. So, it is never easy to determine how realistic are the outcomes of stimulations. But they are a useful exercise for policy makers, and we might well presume that other versions of the Saban Center's simulation have been or are being carried out in Israel and Iran.
Monday, March 29, 2010
What If Israel Attacked Iran's Nuclear Facilities?
This was the question asked by researchers at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, when they held a day-long war game between three players - Israel, Iran, and the US - each making three moves, with the first being Israel's unprovoked strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of the Saban Center, reports on the results of the game here.