Sunday, January 10, 2010

A Bold Prediction (But Not Mine)

Anatole Kaletsky, who writes a regular column for The Times of London, is one of my favorite economic journalists. His analyses are  invariably thoughtful, sometimes humorous, and usually quite persuasive. I'm not sure I'm persuaded, however, by his column in tomorrow morning's edition of The Times, which predicts a robust and sustained recovery of the US economy in 2010: 
I stick to my guns in believing that a “roaring” US recovery is already under way. Unlike most other analysts, who believe that the strong fourth quarter will prove just a temporary aberration to be followed by a long period of sub-trend growth, I expect US growth to remain around 4 per cent throughout 2010, making this the strongest year for the US economy since the 1990s.
I certainly hope he's right, but I fear he's not. 

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